I mean, would you visit Earth?

Hey, did you know that there are thirty six alien civilizations out in the galaxy right now? And that they're almost certainly judging us? How do I know that? Science for the first part, and reasonable assumption for the second. I mean, I would judge us.

There are eleven seasons of Naked and Afraid. Eleven.
We're lucky the aliens haven't nuked us from orbit.

They don't want to look like fools.

Yeah but...you say. And you would be correct. Yeah, but how do they know? And who are they? The they are scientists from the University of Nottingham (as in the sherif of) who published a study recently in The Astrophysical Journal. And as to how they know, they don't. They suspect. They theorize. They extrapolate. They don't know. Because this is science we're talking about and unless said aliens are invading, probing, or asking us what this Earth emotion we call love is, science likes to hedge its bets.

"I don't have all day, give me the gist."

-Everyone

According to the study's abstract-because seriously, have you ever tried to read an actual academic study? Anyway, according to the abstract, the scientists used Earth and human civilization as an example and factored in "[g]alactic star formation histories, metallicity distribution, and the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones..." to estimate the number of intelligent, technological, extraterrestrial civilizations and that number is-at minimum-thirty six. So, like, where is everybody?

To be clear, the jury is still out on this one.

Settle down. The scientists are careful to point out that this number is based on a number of huge assumptions, all of which use Earth as a baseline. If our planet evolved intelligent lifeforms then it seems plausible that similar stars with similar planets might just have done the same. And even if happened, space is, you know, big. According to the study if aliens are spread uniformly over the entire galaxy, the closest one should be no more than 17,000 light years away. Which again, huge.

"Yeah, but the economy..."

-what it will say on

our specie's tombstone

So huge in fact, that the University of Nottingham study says that it's outside our detectable range meaning that if they're out there, they're too far away for us to do anything about it. And that's just space, time is also a factor. Just because we're smack in the middle of the information age, doesn't mean the aliens are. Depending on when they crawled out of the ocean, they could be in the middle of their Old West or Ancient Egypt or ten-thousand years ahead of us. Or dead. I mean, our planet is literally on fire and we're rolling back environmental protections.

I suppose there's like a 50/50 shot that
they'll want to gestate in our abdomens, so
 maybe it's ok that we'll never meet them?

Ok, so there could be thirty six alien civilizations out there. Or more. Or fewer. Or none. And even if there are, it's incredibly unlikely we'll even encounter them in our life time. So what's the point? I don't know. I don't know that there is one. Science doesn't really work that way. But there are an estimated one to four hundred billion stars in the Galaxy. That's billion with a "b." And of those, this study is pegging the number of planets with intelligent life forms at thirty six. Thirty six out of four hundred billion.

If there has to be a takeaway here, and again, that's not science's job, but if there is one, perhaps it's that we should think about the preposterously unlikely set of circumstances that resulted in life, and then complex life, and then intelligent life on Earth. And then we could, I don't know, bike more? Bring a reusable tote to the grocery store? Do something, anything to decrease the likelihood of our own extinction?

Hey, do you suppose other planets have dumb idiots?
Maybe that's why we've never encountered aliens...