To boldly guesstimate...

Forty two thousand, seven hundred, seventy seven, huh? Well, to that I say: Forty two thousand, seven hundred, seventy eight.

Above: Basically what I'm doing.

"Maximae normalem"

That's right, in your face researchers from the Astronomy Department at Beijing Normal University. And yes, that's what it's called, Beijing Normal University. Anyway, that number, forty two thousand, seven hundred, seventy seven is the number of alien civilizations mathematicians Wenjie Song and He Gao estimate are out in space right now as we speak. Or type. Or whatever.

If you're in Monte Carlo, it's a method
and you're classy. In you're in Vegas,
it's gambling and you have a problem.

The researchers used a mathematical model called the Monte Carlo method to arrive at that number, and given that there's something like two hundred billion stars in the galaxy and five thousand planets have been spotted by astronomers, sure, I buy that. Or or know, some other number, because mathematical model or no, how can we know for sure? I mean no disrespect to the field of calculating unprovable things, but there's something, I don't know, cheat-y about publicizing a figure that's not only impossible to verify, but also one which would be entirely eclipsed if even a single alien civilization was discovered.

That is, if aliens showed up tomorrow and announced there were forty-three thousand alien species ion our galaxy, everyone's going to be talking about how aliens just landed, not that Song and Gao's numbers were off.

"My fellow Americans, today is truly a remarkable and unprecedented day in the
course of human history: aliens have arrived on Earth, but more importantly, 
two researchers have been proven to be slightly off in their calculations..."

-The President, on First Contact/Math Pedantry Day

"I don't know, five?"

-Some rando with an 

equally possible estimate

Of course, that's just an estimate and, according to their paper...well, according to the abstract, it's--ok, you got me, according to an article I read about the paper...look, academic papers, especially ones about math are...daunting. But the point is that number is a high end estimate of the number of advanced aliens who would be capable of communication (or CETIs). The low end estimate is one hundred and eleven which, I mean, that's a crazy large range and the truth of it is it could be anywhere from none to millions or billions, right? But I suppose until someone invents warp drive, we'll have to settle for estimates.

But I guess I understand the desire to try and come up with a number, even if there's no way we'll ever know if it's right or not. Song and Gao can't prove their number, but no one can disprove it either. And really, I suppose any number of aliens would be interesting.

Pictured: The scene in 1997's Contact in which Jodi Foster meets
an alien who not only takes on the form of her dead father, but also
flies in the face of my assertion that any aliens would be interesting.